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chance the money lasts
Your portfolio & asset classes
Edit any number, or add your own asset class. Returns are compound annual, after fees.
| Asset class | Balance (HK$) | Return %/yr | Volatility % | Corr. to market | Crash % | Locked until age | Savings % | Avg/yr* |
|---|
Portfolio over time
How much can you spend?
Highest monthly spending (today's HK$) that still meets each confidence level, at your chosen retirement age.
When could you retire?
Chance the money lasts for each retirement age (dashed line = 90%).
Things to check
Assumptions & methodology (what the numbers are built on)
What your inputs imply
How a simulation works
Known limits
- Defaults are judgement, not forecasts. The return, volatility and correlation presets are round numbers for illustration. Check them against published capital-market assumptions and your own view, then see how sensitive the answer is.
- Not modelled: pension death/spouse benefits, tax (including US estate-tax exposure on US-listed holdings), MPF, property, other income, one-off costs, currency moves, rebalancing costs, and any change in spending as you age.
- Insurance is treated as ordinary growth that can be withdrawn freely once unlocked. Real surrender values, guaranteed vs. non-guaranteed splits and penalties can differ.
- Returns are independent year to year apart from the turbulent-year switch, so long bear markets and valuation effects are only roughly captured.